The King of NothingStats

I love statistics for what they cannot tell us, particularly polling statistics. My favorite NothingStat that gets trotted out from time to time is the "Wrong Track" poll, purported to measure the country's mood at the moment.

Although in analysis, the question is usually tied to follow up questions on the economy or other issues of personal interest, this is how the question reads:

"Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"

That's it. With such quantifiable descriptives as "direction" "things" and "pretty seriously" the collective answer becomes a ready catalyst for a sort of panglossian pessimism.

Theoretically, if the country is going the "wrong" direction, this poll should give guidance on the "right" direction, yes?

No.

Anyone can answer the poll. And anyone does. Some will answer the nation is on the wrong track because of its culture of abortion, others will argue that it is on the wrong track because abortion rights are threatened. Some will answer the nation is on the railway to hell because of who is President at the time. Another because of Congress. Some might have just seen an episode of South Park. Some a rerun of Three's Company. Some might be furious at the local school board. Others might just have had their favorite crooner kicked off American Idol.

Everybody's right track is individualized, which is why it isn't surprising that anywhere from 65 to 80% of people never think we are on the right track. Because we aren't on theirs.

According to the lates measurement, only 19% of all Americans think the country is running exactly as it would were they in charge of it.

I'm surprised it is that high.

What do you do with a poll response like this? What can you do?

Nothing. It is a NothingStat. It is the Seinfeld of phone call polling. Nothing is its job. And it performs it famously. I think it may be onto something.